NOISE A Flaw in Human Judgment

• Main Authors: Kahneman, Daniel 1934- (Author), Sibony, Olivier (Author), Sunstein, Cass R. (Author)
• Format: Book
• Language: English
• Published: New York Little, Brown Spark 2021
• Subjects: Judgment; Decision making; Reasoning (Psychology); Cognitive styles.
• Online Access: Click Here to View Status and Holdings.

Discusses why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones by reducing the influence of "noise"--variables that can cause bias in decision making--and draws on examples in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, strategy, and personnel selecti...

Table of Contents:

• Introduction: Two kinds of error
• Part I. Finding noise: Crime and noisy punishment ; A noisy system ; Singular decisions
• Part II. Your mind is a measuring instrument: Matters of judgment ; Measuring error ; The analysis of noise ; Occasion noise ; How groups amplify noise
• Part III. Noise in predictive judgments: Judgments and models ; Noiseless rules ; Objective ignorance ; The valley of the normal
• Part IV. How noise happens: Heuristics, biases, and noise ; The matching operation ; Scale ; Patterns ; The sources of noise
• Part V. Improving judgments: Better judges for better judgments ; Debiasing and decision hygiene ; Sequencing information in forensic science ; Selection and aggregation in forecasting ; Guidelines in medicine ; Defining the scale in performance ratings ; Structure in hiring ; The mediating assessments protocol
• Part VI. Optimal noise: The costs of noise reduction ; Dignity ; Rules or standards?
• Review and conclusion: Taking noise seriously
• Epilogue: A less noisy world
• Appendix A: How to conduct a noise audit
• Appendix B: A checklist for a decision observer
• Appendix C: Correcting predictions.